Probably Stolen Guides

Practical help for the current Probably Stolen Steam Playtest, built on what the developer actually documents about how the shop works.

The whole game in one paragraph

You run a pawnshop. Rent rises every week no matter what you do.You win by earning enough to buy the shop outright. Everything between those two facts is a series of judgement calls: what an item is really worth, whether the person across the counter is a customer or Security, and how much legal risk a margin is worth.

Published guides

Getting started

All 6 Starting Scenarios Compared

Gunsmith, Chemist, Water Merchant, Fence, Farmer and Rock Bottom — what each one actually commits you to.

Playtest

Release Date & How to Join the Playtest

The 2026 window, and the step-by-step for requesting Playtest access on Steam.

Before you play

System Requirements & Steam Deck

Full minimum specs, and the real answer on Mac, Linux, Steam Deck and controllers.

Reference

Game Wiki & Database

Every confirmed system, item and NPC in one index, each with its verification status.

How the shop actually works

Before any individual item guide, these are the four systems that decide whether a run survives. All four are documented by the developer, so you can plan around them from your first session.

1. Rent is a clock, not a bill

Rent increases over time regardless of how well your week went. Falling behind reduces store attractiveness, which reduces customer traffic, which reduces revenue — widening the gap.

The practical consequence: falling behind is not a flat setback, it compounds. Lower attractiveness means fewer customers, which means less revenue, which means you fall further behind. Protecting your weekly rent payment matters more than any single high-margin sale.

2. Your profit comes from appraisal, not haggling

Rare items need proper appraisal to avoid overpaying. Cigarette packs need visual inspection before resale. Suppliers overstate value.

The developer is explicit that “misjudge the item or the person selling it, and you absorb the cost.” Buying badly is the main way players lose money — not selling badly. Cigarette packs need visual inspection, water needs testing and filtering, and weapons need permits before they are worth anything to you.

3. Every customer is a possible trap

Today’s customer could be Security fishing for evidence, a revolutionary seeking leverage, or a fallen elite testing your usefulness. Approve, refuse, report, or look away — someone is always taking notes.

You have four responses to any transaction — approve, refuse, report, or look away — and the game states that someone is always taking notes. This is where reputation comes from: reputation buys access and protection, but it also paints a target on your back.

4. Risk scales with margin, deliberately

Hide stolen goods and contraband from the authorities, or bribe your way out if you get caught. Contraband brings raids.

The high-margin routes are gated behind licenses: unlock advanced licenses to access the underground market. some trades need heavy machinery and permits.Faction relationships open exclusive deals on top of that. The rule of thumb the design pushes you toward is that the better the margin, the worse the failure.

Guides in progress

These are being written from the current Playtest build with in-game numbers and original screenshots. We publish a guide when we can answer the question — a page that says “this is not documented” is not a guide.

GuideWhat it will answer
Beginner guideA concrete plan for surviving your first in-game week
How to make moneyWhich routes actually clear rent, with real figures
Radioactive WasteWhere it goes, whether it sells, and what it is worth
AugsThe tells that identify an infected customer before it costs you
BarteringHow the haggling interface works and when to push
Becoming a fenceUnlock requirements and the contraband risk curve
Items & pricesA full item table with buy and sell values
NPC listWho each named character is and what they trade

Probably Stolen gameplay FAQ

What is the goal in Probably Stolen?

To earn enough money to buy out your shop before rising rent forces your hand. Rent increases every week regardless of how well you did, so standing still is losing.

What is the best starting path in Probably Stolen?

There is no officially best path. Each of the six product lines has a different failure mode: weapons draw inspections, chemicals bring addiction, water carries liability, contraband invites raids. Pick the consequence you would rather manage.

How do you make money in Probably Stolen?

By buying below value and selling above it, which depends on appraising items correctly. The official description states that suppliers overstate value, that rare items need proper appraisal to avoid overpaying, and that misjudging an item means you absorb the cost.

What happens if you cannot pay rent in Probably Stolen?

The official description spells out the spiral: your store loses attractiveness, fewer customers come in, revenue drops, and the gap widens. Recovering usually means taking riskier deals to stabilise cash flow.

Should you sell counterfeit goods in Probably Stolen?

It is an explicit option — you can cut product quality, relabel counterfeits as genuine, or fence stolen goods. The trade-off is that any customer might be Security fishing for evidence, and there is mob justice on top of official enforcement.

Sources

Last verified against official sources on .