Probably Stolen Starting Scenarios
All six starting paths in Probably Stolen, what each one sells, and the specific kind of trouble each one buys you.
Probably Stolen has six starting scenarios: Gunsmith, Chemist, Water Merchant, Fence, Farmer and Rock Bottom.
They are not character classes. Each one sets your product line, and every product line has its own enforcement problem. As the developer puts it:“You’re not choosing a theme for your shop, you’re choosing which kind of trouble you’re willing to monetize.”
All six paths compared
| Path | Sells | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Gunsmith | Weapons | Weapons require permits and modifications, and bring inspections. |
| Chemist | Chemicals | Chemicals bring addiction. Profitable recipes are closely guarded. |
| Water Merchant | Water | Water brings liability. It must be tested and filtered before resale. |
| Fence | Stolen goods | Contraband brings raids. Stolen goods must be hidden from the authorities. |
| Farmer | Produce | Tied to farming and production chains rather than fast contraband margins. |
| Rock Bottom | None | No starting specialisation — you begin from nothing. |
Each path in detail
Gunsmith
Deals in firearms and weapon modifications. The official description ties this line to permits, modification work and Security inspections.
The catch: Weapons require permits and modifications, and bring inspections.
Chemist
Produces and sells chemical goods. Steam states that profitable chemicals rely on closely guarded recipes, and that this line brings addiction as a consequence.
The catch: Chemicals bring addiction. Profitable recipes are closely guarded.
Water Merchant
Tests, filters and resells water. Steam explicitly names testing and filtering as required steps, and liability as the failure mode.
The catch: Water brings liability. It must be tested and filtered before resale.
Fence
Buys and resells stolen merchandise at a discount. Steam frames this around hiding goods from Security and bribing your way out when caught.
The catch: Contraband brings raids. Stolen goods must be hidden from the authorities.
Farmer
Grows and sells produce. The official feature list names hydroponic farming as one of the additional jobs you can master.
The catch: Tied to farming and production chains rather than fast contraband margins.
Rock Bottom
Starts with no product line at all. Steam lists this as starting "from pure rock bottom", making it the open-ended and hardest-framed option.
The catch: No starting specialisation — you begin from nothing.
Your starting path is not a class
This is the most useful thing to understand before your first run. The starting scenario sets where you begin, not what you are permanently locked into. The official feature list names additional jobs you can master during a run:
- Water merchant
- Hydroponic farmer
- Organ dealer
On top of that, advanced licenses unlock access to the underground market, and faction connections open exclusive deals. So a Farmer start does not mean a farming-only run — it means farming is what you can do on day one.
How to choose
Since no path is officially ranked, the useful question is not “which is best” but “which enforcement pressure do I want to play against”:
- Inspections (Gunsmith) — recurring, procedural, and tied to permits and modifications.
- Addiction (Chemist) — a consequence attached to your customers rather than to you.
- Liability (Water Merchant) — you are answerable for product quality, so testing and filtering are mandatory steps.
- Raids (Fence) — the highest-variance option, dependent on hiding goods and bribing your way out.
- Slow build (Farmer) — production chains rather than fast contraband margins.
- No safety net (Rock Bottom) — maximum freedom, zero starting advantage.
Being straight with you: exact starting money, inventory and unlock costs for each path are not published by the developer. We are recording them from the current Playtest build and will add a full numbers table here rather than estimate them now.
Starting scenario FAQ
How many starting scenarios does Probably Stolen have?
Six: Gunsmith, Chemist, Water Merchant, Fence, Farmer, and Rock Bottom.
What is the best starting scenario in Probably Stolen?
The developer does not rank them, and each carries a different consequence rather than a different difficulty score. Weapons bring inspections, chemicals bring addiction, water brings liability, and contraband brings raids. The right pick is the enforcement pressure you would rather play against.
What is Rock Bottom in Probably Stolen?
Rock Bottom is the starting option with no product specialisation at all — you begin from nothing rather than with an established trade. It is the most open-ended start and is framed by the developer as starting from pure rock bottom.
Can you change your starting path later in Probably Stolen?
Your starting path is not a permanent class. The official feature list describes mastering additional jobs during a run, including water merchant, hydroponic farmer and organ dealer, so your opening trade is a starting position rather than a locked specialisation.
What is the easiest starting scenario for beginners?
No difficulty rating is published for any path. What the official material does establish is that each product line has both its own profit curve and its own way of ruining you, so no path is risk-free.
Sources
- Probably Stolen on Steam — the six starting paths, additional jobs, per-line consequences
- Probably Stolen Steam Discussions — player reports on path progression
Last verified against official sources on .